DH DealHound · NYC distressed-property pipeline

Find the houses
nobody else knows are for sale.

Every weeknight, DealHound sweeps every parcel in NYC, cross-references the public record for signs of distress, and surfaces the few hundred where a motivated owner is statistically hiding. Off-market by definition. The phone work is the deal — the screen finds who to call.

All 5 boroughs PLUTO · DOB · ECB · HPD · liens Nightly cron Private · two-seat access

01 · Universe

~33k parcels

Every lot in the target zips, pulled monthly from NYC PLUTO.

02 · Buy-box

~28k filtered

Only buildable building-class codes in the buyer's buy-box. The rest are noise.

03 · Signals

100k+ events

DOB + ECB + HPD violations, tax-lien candidates, permit silence, FAR slack.

04 · Worth a call

~117 flagged

Score ≥ 35 and modeled spread ≥ $100K. The working board.

Who it's for

Two seats. One pipeline.

Not a SaaS. A private engine wired between the operator who finds the deals and the closer who calls the owners.

The closer

Buyer · NYC investor

Works the phones. Walks the houses. Decides what's real. Has been finding distressed NYC deals for years on instinct — DealHound just sharpens where the phone gets pointed.

"The score finds motivated owner candidates. The phone converts them."

Pays per closed deal. The board lives or dies by pursued / dead / closed feedback — that's the loop that re-weights the score over time.

The operator

Builder · the rails

Owns the ingest, the scoring, the cockpit. Watches the feedback loop and tunes the weights when reality disagrees with the spreadsheet.

Not the closer's analyst — DealHound is. The operator's job is to make the analyst better at its job every week.

The score

Eight signals of a motivated owner

Each signal is a public-record fact that, on its own, hints the owner has checked out, run out of money, or been forced into a corner. Stacked, they're a statistical bet on who picks up the phone.

SignalWeightWhy it predicts a deal
Lis pendensPre-foreclosure filing on record
+40 ⏳
Strongest motivation in the data. Wired in Phase 1 once the aggregator feed lands.
Vacate orderDOB ordered the building emptied
+30
Owner is now carrying an unrentable asset with a public-record problem.
Tax-lien candidateOn the DOF lien-sale list in last 18 months
+25
The city is preparing to sell the debt. Window before things get worse.
HPD Class C violationImmediately hazardous
+12
No-heat, no-hot-water, structural. Tenants suing or city moving in.
Open violations 3+(stacks +10 more at 6+)
+15
Neglect, not bad luck. Pattern matters more than any single hit.
No permits in 15 yearsDOB has heard nothing
+10
Building untouched. Owner checked out — and the systems are 15 years overdue.
Prewar, never alteredBuilt < 1945 per PLUTO
+8
Original wiring, plaster, plumbing. High probability of forced sale on next major break.
Unused FAR ≥ 50%Half the buildable envelope is sitting on the table
+8
The design-build expansion angle — what the seller missed, the buyer can build.
Threshold to surfaceScore ≥ 35  AND  Modeled spread ≥ $100K

The spread is a screen, not an appraisal

Every parcel gets a modeled ARV — zip × building-class median $/sqft from the last 9 months of public rolling sales. From that, subtract honest assumptions: ~62% of ARV as acquisition (until the property's actually listed or negotiated) and a per-sqft renovation budget that varies by gut/medium/light.

What's left is the modeled spread. It's the floor George needs to see before he's willing to spend a phone call. It is not the deal — the deal is found at the kitchen table.

Modeled spread — sample

ARV (1,640 sqft × $612/sqft)$1,003,680
Acquisition (62% of ARV)−$622,282
Renovation ($165/sqft gut)−$270,600
Modeled spread$110,798

Every number is "est." Acquisition tightens once George has a real conversation.

What a lead looks like

One BBL. Every fact needed to make the call.

The detail page collapses PLUTO, comps, violations, lien status, FAR slack, and the score breakdown into one screen — then puts approve / snooze / kill on the bottom.

DealHound Leads BBL 5-04212-0034 Private board

148 Bay 33rd Street

Bath Beach · Brooklyn · 11214 · 2-family · 1928
76
Fit score
ARV (est)$1.00M
Acquisition$622K
Reno (gut)$271K
Spread+$111K
Tax-lien list · Apr 2026 2× HPD Class C open 7 open violations No permit since 2008 FAR slack 64% Prewar · never altered

The cockpit

Five-column pipeline. Every parcel has a status.

The board is the closer's day. New on the left, closed on the right. The dead column isn't waste — it's the feedback that tells DealHound what to weight less next month.

New117
148 Bay 33rd StBath Beach76
2218 Beach ChannelFar Rockaway71
414 E 138th StMott Haven68
Sent14
62 Targee StStapleton64
1102 Manor RdCastleton58
Pursuing6
331 Van Duzer StTompkinsville72
88-14 168th StJamaica69
Closed3
217 WesterveltNew Brighton+$184K
9 Wright StStapleton+$142K
Dead52
512 Bay StOwner won't talk
71 Pine Tree PlFamily trust

Five tracks

Same engine. Five buyer warmth lanes.

The score is universal — the way leads are surfaced is split by asset class, ordered by how warmly each lane fits the closer's actual phone time today.

Residential

Flip-ready · top of board

1-3 family. The warmest lane. Highest call-to-close conversion in the data.

Mixed-use

Storefront + units

Commercial ground floor, residential above. Slower cycle, real upside on rents.

Multifamily

4+ units

Yield product. Pricier acquisition; FAR slack and violations matter more here.

Commercial

300+ candidates

Largest pool, coldest call. Tax-lien signal carries most of the weight in this lane.

Vacant land

Buildable lots

FAR-driven. The score is mostly "how much could you legally put here."

Under the hood

One monthly sweep. Four nightly jobs.

The data is all NYC Open Data — public records, free, verified IDs. The work is in cross-referencing them honestly.

The schedule

  • pluto monthly Refresh the parcel universe — every lot in the target zips, filtered to buildable building-class codes.
  • signals nightly DOB + ECB + HPD violations, permits, tax-lien candidates — every new event tagged to its BBL.
  • sales nightly Rolling sales → median $/sqft per zip × building-class bucket. This is the ARV backbone.
  • score nightly ARV · spread · weighted signals. Re-runs the whole board after the others have finished writing.

Verified sources

Every dataset below is a public NYC Open Data ID, filtered to the boroughs we work.

PLUTO
id 64uk-42ksmonthly
DOB violations
id 3h2n-5cm9nightly
ECB violations
id 6bgk-3dadnightly
HPD violations
id wvxf-dwi5nightly
DOB permits (BIS)
id ipu4-2q9anightly
DOB NOW permits
id rbx6-tga4nightly
Rolling sales
id usep-8jbtnightly
Tax-lien list
id 9rz4-mjekseasonal

What it doesn't do

Said out loud, every time.

DealHound finds candidates. Calling these limits out is how the score stays trusted as the board grows.

ARV is a screen, not an appraisal

Zip × class median $/sqft. Good enough to surface candidates, never good enough to underwrite.

Acquisition is a placeholder

62% of ARV is a crude rule until a property is listed or actually negotiated. Real numbers come from George's call.

Violations measure neglect — not willingness to sell

The score finds motivated owner candidates. The conversion still happens at the kitchen table.

Tax-lien list moves in cycles

Updates around the annual lien sale. Strongest in spring; quietest mid-fall.

What ships next

Phase 1 — the +40 signal lands, and the score writes the letter

The single largest predictor in the model isn't live yet. Once it is, the rest of Phase 1 is about turning a flagged parcel into a sent letter without leaving the board.